Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
